Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.967492 2.617592 3.505747 4.841207 6.859222e+00 9.901009e+00 15.054094
2024-12-22 1.372695 2.093736 3.272430 5.466570 9.775716e+00 1.871176e+01 41.603589
2024-12-29 1.043219 1.787336 3.212696 6.463996 1.485685e+01 4.016523e+01 155.649713
2025-01-05 0.800433 1.513266 3.082449 7.416248 2.225734e+01 9.204909e+01 858.993649
2025-01-12 0.593082 1.209904 2.726929 7.654637 2.960295e+01 1.968788e+02 7520.186408
2025-01-19 0.431747 0.932144 2.271571 7.228466 3.500452e+01 3.827234e+02 190659.647066
2025-01-26 0.345084 0.791994 2.105428 7.759273 5.011067e+01 1.195197e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 0.289571 0.706402 2.054427 8.887325 8.144871e+01 7.045901e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.242515 0.623002 1.960051 9.832076 1.295786e+02 9.423404e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 0.199988 0.534444 1.788337 10.131134 1.863354e+02 9.540828e+06 NaN
2025-02-23 0.162465 0.446314 1.560509 9.671981 2.331038e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.130439 0.364483 1.309859 8.599729 2.495128e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.114181 0.331072 1.264172 9.464400 4.373302e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.099373 0.297047 1.193562 10.024508 7.382159e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.089071 0.275544 1.173931 11.314664 1.599511e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.079681 0.253877 1.138637 12.448406 3.612900e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.069344 0.224759 1.039037 12.265527 5.966160e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.059202 0.193286 0.905169 11.047523 6.886255e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.053251 0.177352 0.860808 11.543215 1.600926e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.049202 0.168105 0.854768 13.010150 7.441476e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.045205 0.157738 0.833965 14.172878 5.049533e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.040902 0.144662 0.784371 14.344067 3.416059e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.036437 0.129612 0.710426 13.414408 1.062148e+07 NaN NaN